Executive Summary

Q3 FY2025 delivered solid topline and gross profit growth amid integration of Fikes/CEFCO: revenue $3.90B (+17% YoY), EBITDA $242.4M (+11% YoY), diluted EPS $2.33 (flat YoY), with inside margin 40.9% and fuel margin 36.4¢ per gallon .
Strong operational KPIs: inside same‑store sales +3.7%, grocery margin +40 bps to 34.2%, fuel same‑store gallons +1.8% while total gallons +20.4% on unit growth; fuel gross profit +17.4% YoY despite lower margins, aided by store additions and share gains vs Mid‑Continent (-4%) .
Guidance updated: EBITDA growth raised to approximately 11% and FY2025 PP&E reduced to ~$500M; all other metrics maintained (inside SSS +3–5%, fuel SSS -1% to +1%, OpEx +11–13%, net interest ~$90M, D&A ~$410M, tax 23–25%, ~270 stores) .
Integration headwinds: one‑time Fikes deal/integration costs (~$13M in Q3) and higher interest/depreciation pressured EPS, with management reiterating Q4 dilutive EPS from Fikes due to incremental interest/D&A and added integration spend; fuel and prepared food margins blended down by ~2¢/gal and ~180 bps respectively from Fikes mix .
Catalyst: the guidance raise on EBITDA and strong store growth trajectory, plus clear synergy roadmap ($45M over 3–4 years, fuel/overhead first, prepared food later) provide medium‑term visibility; near‑term narrative acknowledges Q4 dilution and weather/leap day headwinds .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Inside performance: Total inside sales +15.3% and inside gross profit +14.3% YoY; grocery margin +40 bps to 34.2% with favorable mix and asset protection gains .
Fuel execution: Same‑store gallons +1.8% vs Mid‑Continent down ~4%, total gallons +20.4% and fuel gross profit +17.4% YoY, showing share gains and scale benefits .
Operational efficiency: Same‑store OpEx ex‑credit card fees +3.2% with same‑store labor hours reduced for the 11th consecutive quarter; management: “reduced same‑store labor hours for the eleventh consecutive quarter” .

What Went Wrong

Margin dilution from Fikes: Prepared food margin down ~180 bps, fuel margin down 90 bps YoY, primarily due to Fikes’ lower margin profile and January coffee promotion; one‑time integration costs ~$13M .
EPS flat YoY: Higher interest from Fikes financing and higher depreciation from operating more stores offset inside/fuel profit gains .
Q4 caution: Management flagged February weather and leap‑day lap; expects finishing the year at the bottom of the inside SSS range and Fikes dilutive to Q4 EPS (interest/D&A/integration costs) .

Financial Results

Metric	Q1 FY2025	Q2 FY2025	Q3 FY2025
Total Revenue ($USD Billions)	$4.098	$3.947	$3.904
Net Income ($USD Millions)	$180.2	$180.9	$87.1
Diluted EPS ($)	$4.83	$4.85	$2.33
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$345.8	$348.9	$242.4
Inside Margin (%)	41.7%	42.2%	40.9%
Fuel Margin (¢/gal)	40.7¢	40.2¢	36.4¢

Segment breakdown (Q3 YoY):

Segment	Q3 FY2024 Revenue ($USD Millions)	Q3 FY2025 Revenue ($USD Millions)	Q3 FY2024 Gross Profit ($USD Millions)	Q3 FY2025 Gross Profit ($USD Millions)	Margin/CPG
Prepared Food & Dispensed Beverage	$349.4	$397.2	$208.3	$229.5	59.6% → 57.8%
Grocery & General Merchandise	$865.5	$1,003.3	$293.2	$343.5	33.9% → 34.2%
Fuel	$2,051.7	$2,366.8	$257.2	$302.1	12.5% → 12.8% ; Fuel gallons 689,251K → 829,761K
Other	$62.6	$136.4	$27.8	$37.4	44.3% → 27.4%

Key KPIs:

KPI	Q1 FY2025	Q2 FY2025	Q3 FY2025
Inside Sales ($USD Millions)	$1,474.1	$1,467.5	$1,400.4
Inside Same‑Store Sales (%)	+2.3%	+4.0%	+3.7%
Inside Gross Profit ($USD Millions)	$614.3	$619.7	$573.1
Grocery & GM Margin (%)	35.4%	35.6%	34.2%
Prepared Food & DB Margin (%)	58.3%	58.7%	57.8%
Fuel Gallons Sold (000s)	772,536	775,914	829,761
Same‑Store Fuel Gallons (%)	+0.7%	-0.6%	+1.8%
Fuel Gross Profit ($USD Millions)	$314.5	$312.3	$302.1
Same‑Store OpEx ex‑CC Fees (%)	+0.7%	+2.3%	+3.2%

Note on estimates: S&P Global consensus EPS and revenue for CASY were unavailable in this session due to a request‑limit error; estimate comparisons are therefore not provided.*

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance (Dec 2024)	Current Guidance (Mar 2025)	Change
EBITDA Growth	FY2025	“Increase at least 10%”	“Increase approximately 11%”	Raised
Purchase of Property & Equipment	FY2025	~$550M	~$500M	Lowered
Inside Same‑Store Sales	FY2025	+3% to +5%	+3% to +5%	Maintained
Inside Margin	FY2025	Comparable to FY2024	Comparable to prior year	Maintained
Same‑Store Fuel Gallons	FY2025	-1% to +1%	-1% to +1%	Maintained
Total Operating Expenses	FY2025	+11% to +13% (incl. $25–$30M one‑time Fikes)	+11% to +13% (incl. $25–$30M one‑time Fikes)	Maintained
Net Interest Expense	FY2025	~+$90M	~+$90M	Maintained
Depreciation & Amortization	FY2025	~$410M	~$410M	Maintained
Effective Tax Rate	FY2025	23%–25%	23%–25%	Maintained
Store Additions	FY2025	~270	~270	Maintained
Dividend	Next payment	$0.50/share (approved)	$0.50/share payable May 15, 2025	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1, Q2)	Current Period (Q3)	Trend
Fikes integration & synergies	Close Nov 1; Q3 dilutive on one‑time costs; synergy roadmap ($45M over 3–4 yrs); fuel/overhead first; prepared food later	Q3 integration ~$13M one‑time costs; Q4 modestly positive EBITDA; prepared food margin drag; expect Q4 EPS dilution from interest/D&A	Near‑term dilutive; medium‑term synergy capture
Fuel share/margins	Outperform region; CPG mid‑ to high‑30s; Q2 CPG 40.2¢	SSS gallons +1.8% vs region ~-4%; CPG 36.4¢; diesel strength noted	Volume up, margin blended down
Prepared food innovation	Hot sandwiches/bakery strength; coffee initiatives; cheese headwind; margin ~58.3–58.7%	Hot sandwiches up >50%; bakery ~+10%; coffee promo lifted units but pressured margin; margin 57.8%	Ongoing innovation; margin mixed on promotions/mix
Ops efficiency	Digital kitchen planning; labor hours reductions; asset protection	11th consecutive quarter of reduced labor hours; SSS OpEx ex‑CC +3.2%	Sustained efficiency
Macro/consumer	Lower‑income pressure but majority base resilient; value positioning vs QSR	Recession concerns addressed; targeted promos; resilience; premium fuel up	Stable consumer above lower‑income cohorts
Fuel supply chain (Fuel 3.0)	Upstream procurement, terminal added via Fikes	Continued build‑out leveraging Fikes assets/team	Strategic capability build

Management Commentary

CEO Darren Rebelez: “Inside same‑store sales were driven by the prepared food and dispensed beverage category, with hot sandwiches and bakery performing quite well… Total fuel gallons sold were up 20.4% while total inside sales rose 15.3% primarily due to unit growth, including the Fikes acquisition” .
CFO Steve Bramlage: “EBITDA for the quarter was $242.4 million… the consolidation of lower‑margin [Fikes/SEPCO] stores drove ~150 bps of the prepared food margin decline, coffee promotion ~20 bps” .
CFO Steve Bramlage: “We now expect to achieve our target leverage ratio of approximately 2x by the end of the fiscal year, earlier than anticipated” .
CEO Darren Rebelez on innovation: “Limited release of new chicken wings and fries… encouraging results so far… not cannibalizing pizza; contributing incremental visits” .

Q&A Highlights

Fikes performance/integration: Early performance aligned with expectations; synergy cadence unchanged—$45M over 3–4 years, ~40% food synergies back‑loaded; fuel and overhead synergies first; Q3 EBITDA dilutive due to ~$13M one‑time costs; Q4 modestly positive EBITDA .
Fuel strategy: Outperformance driven by ramping acquired units and improving diesel programs; mothership CPG ~2¢ higher than consolidated due to Fikes blend .
Consumer and promotions: Value positioning vs QSRs remains compelling; targeted promotions via Rewards without higher spend; resilience across income cohorts with some lower‑income softness .
Coffee/wings pilots: Coffee promotion drove positive unit growth (2M cups given in January); wings test in ~225 Des Moines‑area stores shows high satisfaction and incremental occasions .
Q4 modeling: February weather/leap‑day lap; expect finishing year at bottom of inside SSS range; fuel margins mid‑30s in February including Fikes .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus EPS and revenue for Q1–Q3 FY2025 were unavailable in this session due to a request‑limit error, so we cannot provide beat/miss vs Wall Street. Analysts should anchor revisions to the company’s raised EBITDA outlook (~~11%) and reduced PP&E (~~$500M), plus Q4 dilution commentary and margin mix from Fikes .
Expect models to reflect: lower prepared food margin trajectory near‑term, blended fuel CPG lower by ~2¢ from Fikes geography, Q4 EPS dilution from interest/D&A/integration costs, and faster deleveraging to ~2x by FY‑end .

Key Takeaways for Investors

EBITDA guidance raised to ~11% for FY2025 while PP&E cut to ~$500M—supportive for near‑term cash flow and deleveraging; leverage target ~2x by FY‑end, earlier than planned .
Fikes integration is proceeding to plan; expect near‑term EPS dilution (Q4) from interest/D&A/integration costs, with fuel/overhead synergies first and food synergies back‑loaded across 3–4 years (~$45M total) .
Inside momentum remains healthy: grocery margin up, hot sandwiches/bakery strong; coffee/wings initiatives can drive incremental traffic albeit with promotional margin pressure—watch prepared food margin trajectory .
Fuel strategy delivering volume/share gains vs market despite blended CPG impact from Fikes; diesel recovery a positive read‑through .
Q4 caution: weather and leap‑day lap plus Fikes dilution likely to pressure quarterly optics; medium‑term story intact with unit growth (~270 adds) and synergy path .
Capital allocation: dividend maintained at $0.50/share; no buybacks until leverage target achieved—signals prioritization of balance sheet strength during integration .
Monitoring list: prepared food margin normalization as kitchens are added to Fikes stores, fuel CPG blend improvement from pricing synergies, cadence of remodel permits, and sustained inside same‑store momentum .

Consensus estimates from S&P Global were unavailable in this session due to system request limits; therefore, estimate comparisons are not provided.

CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC (CASY)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary